Being financially independent

Wally

Over the last 20 years, the S&P has increased by 10% or more half the time. By 15% or more a quarter of the time and by 25% or more for three years.

So if you put your money in an ETF, you would make that by doing nothing. It’s entirely possible to achieve 15% ROI.

As for inflation, sure, but your discount is entirely speculative and even if true, retiring at 60 with 700K in the bank is nothing to be sniffed at.

C_J

Wally

Wally Over the last 20 years, the S&P has increased by 10% or more half the time. By 15% or more a quarter of the time and by 25% or more for three years.

So if you put your money in an ETF, you would make that by doing nothing. It’s entirely possible to achieve 15% ROI.

Yeah, but it’s also gone down a lot in some years. -38% in ’08 for example. You’d be happy with 8 or 9 per cent a year over twenty years in a developed market index like the S&P imo. It still compounds up nicely.

For 15% a year you’d need to be in emerging markets or smaller companies. Some huge gains to be had on the AIM for example if you are good/lucky enough to be able to pick the winners (which very few people are)

Hursty

Wally They will go up tomorrow, the question is by how much and it will only depend on how much manipulation the big players can inflict to quell the amount of trades.

benson

I’m aiming for 8% real terms. 10% growth-2% inflation per year.

21k a year into ISAs for next 10 years (LISA bonus) then 20k / year for 5 years

after 15 years 10% growth that will be 855k which is 623k after accounting for inflation.

Just under double the 335k that will have been put in. (325k if you exclude 10 × 1k LISA bonus)

seems fair. Definitely not a quick buck.

the S&p is a bit of a runaway train at the moment. There will be sone corrections

C_J

benson after 15 years 10% growth that will be 855k which is 623k after accounting for inflation.

I reckon it’s £727k before inflation. You might want to double check.

benson

C_J You are right. Couple of curve balls, I already had 4k saved and this year have made 24.37%. When you factor that in i have more. Here is the math, showing I was wrong. Assumes 10% growth per year, 21k per year until 50 and 20 k a year after that.

1 £21,000.00 £23,100.00
2 £44,100.00 £48,510.00
3 £69,510.00 £76,461.00
4 £97,461.00 £107,207.10
5 £128,207.10 £141,027.81
6 £162,027.81 £178,230.59
7 £199,230.59 £219,153.65
8 £240,153.65 £264,169.02
9 £285,169.02 £313,685.92
10 £334,685.92 £368,154.51
11 £388,154.51 £426,969.96
12 £446,969.96 £491,666.96
13 £511,666.96 £562,833.65
14 £582,833.65 £641,117.02
15 £661,117.02 £727,228.72

Millsy

I’m on +70% for the year so far but agree with CJ about the curve over a longer time horizon. I’ll be investing steadily in EVs, 3D printing, and block chain. The latter especially since we’re now in uncharted territory with the stock market. I won’t be investing in Bitcoin on its own by the way, or tesla on its own either. But I do believe in all three areas of disruption. The only other disruptive tech area I want to explore is genomics

Hursty

50k+ tweets about #silversqueeze already trending

Wally

Hursty Sell the house, car and a kidney and get it all in. YOLO.

Wally

For the last 20 years, it averages out at 9.76% by my calculation. That’s including the 08 crash where everything went to shit. That’s what you get if you do literally nothing but stick it in a market matching EFT.

I’m not saying there won’t be dips but if you pull your finger out and actually do a bit of homework, you can blast past 15% easily. I certainly have last year (yes, in one of the craziest years ever seen) and am way further ahead this year already. See Millsy’s +70% for another example.

C_J

Wally For the last 20 years, it averages out at 9.76% by my calculation. That’s including the 08 crash where everything went to shit. That’s what you get if you do literally nothing but stick it in a market matching EFT.

it’s 7.2% in USD terms with dividends reinvested before inflation, or about 5% in real terms..

Wally I’m not saying there won’t be dips but if you pull your finger out and actually do a bit of homework, you can blast past 15% easily. I certainly have last year (yes, in one of the craziest years ever seen) and am way further ahead this year already. See Millsy’s +70% for another example.

making over 15% in a year doesn’t mean it’s possible to make 15% a year for 20 years. Unless you’re literally Warren Buffet. If you could make 12% per year over 20 years you’d be a superstar investor and probably a billionaire. If you offered me a guaranteed 10% a year for 20 years I would snap your hand off. Personally I target 7 or 8 percent a year over that sort of horizon.

Good luck though, I hope you prove me wrong.

Hursty

Wally They are going after the banks this week.

Wally

Keep your eyes on these. It’s discount week in Stockland.

Amps

Wally What am I looking at there Walter?

C_J

I feel like a protracted bear market is coming tbh.

benson

Also wally wasn;t that just after dot com crash?

Wally

benson what was? My maths for the 9.76% included every year from 2000 to 2020?

Wally

Amps Various hedge funds are bleeding so much money from Gamestop (or are about to) they are having to pull their investments in other companies to cover things which is making all those other companies share prices drop making it a good time to buy those instead when you think they’ve hit their dip lowest point.

benson

Wally The entire market cap of gamestop is 22b. Sure it is a lot, but probably about 10b of exposure. I get that there may be derivatives etc but this really does feel like a flash in the pan that is really only going to leave retail investors hurt in the long run.

I have no doubt it is affecting sentiment. Gamestop has acted like a fight at a party and people have cashed out a bit. I think that people will now have a bit of a hangover and we are due a bit of a downturn but lets not put the blame / credit depending on your point of view for that entirely on the gamestop episode.

-si-

Wally, you aren’t going to make 15% returns every single year for the next 2 decades. Screen shot my post and let’s chat about it in 2041.

Wally

I’ve put it in the calender. Can meet on the Fabric stairs at 3am in 2041.

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