LT42 to win the tour you absolutely have to be a great climber who can nail TTs. That’s been the pattern for a long time now. Froome, Thomas, Wiggins, Pogacar and Roglic all very good in this area.
WVA won on Ventoux last year, so he can climb, it’s just the consistency. He’s going for the green jersey anyway, which he’ll easily get - his job will be the wasted on of trying to deliver yellow to Roglic.