Jules72 Not disputin that the initial signs are positive, and am very hopeful the data plays out the same way in the UK 👍️

    Jules72 overcaution imo, which I understand but, at the same time, isn’t consistent with the evidence… and you can only make a neutral judgement based on the evidence you’re seeing

    I think the point that many of the experts are stressing is that the studies and method of testing show that the evidence is far from waterproof. We’re seeing results of studies and looking at data in real time, its important not to make conclusions based on short term data and testing which isn’t clinical based yet. My guess is Govts are operating with worst case scenario models and all evidence is pointing to this thing ripping through populations and causing havoc for travel and the service industry despite the early data showing it being “mild”. Won’t make a difference to border control whether its mild or just the sniffles.

    Idiot pal of mine sent me a video of people getting arrested in NYC because they refused to mask up etc, it came with the quote “slowly but surely our rights are being stripped.” Absolute bollox really, how many times did these fucks get stopped by bouncers because they were wearing trainers or the wrong shirt? They weren’t screaming about control or rights then. They just moved onto the next place. There’s hysteria on all sides amplified by social media.

        Wales closing nightclubs again, is this really worth it? How many people actually go clubbing in Wales each week? I would really like to see any evidence closing nightclubs in a country of fields/mountains makes a significant difference

          LT42 I hear you on data caveats… but have you seen the South African ICU data? No caveats to that - it’s 100% subdued

            LT42 There’s hysteria on all sides amplified by social media.

            Aint that the truth. Everyone’s an expert apparantly.

                mono-stereo Everyone’s an expert apparantly.

                I’m an expert at 2 things.

                Ledging the bants and ledging it at the coalface.

                    Hursty Cardiff pretty much the same as any similar-sized British city I’d imagine?

                    They may be a bit more into rock music (judging by the amount of bands who’ve come out of Cardiff), but those are still clubs/live venues.

                        bosstrabs But how many people actually go to them on a weekend in the grand scheme of things, surely there are better ways to control the spread? Maybe not, maybe it’s all happening in nightclubs, not circuits down the local gym or a spinning class.

                        My local gym is more risky than any nightclub for me, 7 days of full age ranges in confined spaces

                          bosstrabs Cardiff pretty much the same as any similar-sized British city I’d imagine?

                          They may be a bit more into rock music (judging by the amount of bands who’ve come out of Cardiff), but those are still clubs/live venues.

                          Just quoting for posterity, the caveat ref rock music is tremendous

                            Smallman1 I’m an expert at 2 things.

                            Ledging the bants and ledging it at the coalface.

                            If they made a film about your life it would be called ‘Edward Shitterbantz’.

                                It would be called ’OLB’s In The House’ MC.

                                That fat lass who’s often on ITV wrote a song about Ed.

                                Go eaaaaaasy on me, baby
                                I had no Bantz to give
                                Didn’t get the chance to
                                Feeeeeeel the Bantz around me
                                I have a shit long neck, and my roof’s a wreck
                                So go E.Zee on me

                                In a few weeks, Covid will likely be in the rear view mirror….

                                South Africa Hospitalization Rate Plunges in Omicron Wave (1)
                                Cases remain high compared with previous Covid waves
                                Omicron infections may have peaked in epicenter Gauteng
                                By Antony Sguazzin
                                (Bloomberg) –
                                South Africa delivered some positive news on the omicroncoronavirus variant on Friday, reporting a much lower rate of hospital admissions and signs that the wave of infections may be peaking.
                                Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference.
                                Health officials presented evidence that the strain may be milder, and that infections may already be peaking in the country’s most populous province, Gauteng.
                                Still, new cases in that week of the current wave were more than 20,000 a day, compared with 4,400 in the same week of the third wave. That’s further evidence of omicron’s rapid transmissibility, which a number of other countries, such as the U.K., are also now experiencing.
                                South Africa, which announced the discovery of the variant on Nov. 25, is being watched as a harbinger of what may happen with omicron elsewhere.
                                Scientists have cautioned that other nations may have a different experience to South Africa as the country’s population is young compared with developed nations. Between 70% and 80% of citizens may also have had a prior Covid-19 infection, according to antibody surveys, meaning they could have some level of protection.
                                Currently there are about 7,600 people with Covid-19 in South African hospitals, about 40% of the peak in the second and third waves. Excess deaths, a measure of the number of deaths against a historical average, are just below 2,000 a week, an eighth of their previous peak.
                                “We are really seeing very small increases in the number of deaths,” said Michelle Groome, head of health surveillance for the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
                                The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations in this wave is also being inflated by the fact that milder patients are being admitted because there is room to accommodate them. Many are there for other complaints but are routinely tested for the pathogen, according to health officials.
                                “We have seen a decrease in a proportion of people who need to be on oxygen. They are at very low levels,” said Waasila Jassat, a researcher with the NICD. “For the first time there are more non-severe than severe patients in hospital.”

                                  Jules72 Wow! That’d be awesome if the same proves to be true in the UK. So a c. 90% reduction in hospital admissions, but potentially c 5x the level of infection could net out at around ½ as great an impact as the Delta wave…

                                    If it appears to be too good to be true…

                                    Let’s hope so, eh?