alistair here’s a more full article on that story in case you (and others) missed it:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
There’s a few interesting parts of the article, including this:
"Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Graham Medley, the chair of the Sage modelling committee.
He’s a professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) which last weekend published a study on Omicron making the case for more restrictions. In a note sent to clients, JP Morgan pointed out that in all of its scenarios. -even the ‘optimistic’ once - LSHTM had assumed that the Omicron variant is just as dangerous as Delta. Why? ‘Evidence from South Africa suggests that Omicron infections are milder,’ JP Morgan said. Adjust for this, it found, and the picture changed dramatically:-
“Bed occupancy by Covid-19 patients at the end of January would be 33% of the peak seen in January 2021. This would be manageable without further restrictions.’"
So JP Morgan had spotted something pretty big; tweak one assumption (on severity) and – suddenly – no need for lockdown.
Why was this scenario left out?"
