bosstrabs Even Luttwak, who tends to be spot on with his strategic insight, is eating humble pie.
All of the intelligence in the last 4 days showed a massive movement of naval operations (some through Istanbul and the Bosphorus) into the West side area of Crimea plus movements of heavy ground forces toward the border only after his meetings with Western leaders. They communicated before this that forces were moving back from the border (proven by satellite imagery) so something changed after the meetings. Ukraine shelling the DRP constantly for over a week didn’t help. One theory is that Putin asked for Crimean canal blockade to be lifted in return for a scale down but he was pushed back by the Ukrainians (most likely after discussions with the US) so it looks like that was the final straw. Expert strategic analysts have said all along that was Putin’s want, not an invasion, so to say that was his plan along is just wild speculation. Putin is far from deranged too, it looks like he just has had enough of the mind games with the West, only difference being he has the power and metal to act and isn’t intimidated, especially by the bravado of the US. His words on history are no different to any of the verbal dirrahea we hear constantly from “world leaders”.
