Ukraine war (WW3)

LT42

Amps the Head of Investment at Gazprom committed “suicide” in the same apt block only last month.

mono-stereo

Talk of the wheels falling off Putins “plan” is premature imo, given we still don’t know what his plan is.

Financially he’s been building up a war chest over the years, surely he has priced in sanctions to some extent?

Militarily, he has the hardware to flatten Kyiv, but he hasn’t. It would seem he’s holding back. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a plan B.

alistair

mono-stereo he and his cronies stand to lose everything by flattening Ukraine. Even China has turned their back on him. Russian companies and banks have lost all access to international companies. In other words, Russia and its people are being fucked slow and hard without any vacilline.

Old-Dutch

mono-stereo Financially he’s been building up a war chest over the years, surely he has priced in sanctions to some extent?

Estimates that the war is costing him $20b a day. Not sure how large that war chest can be after 2 years of COVID, but the longer Ukraine can hold on and the more the screw tightens with sanctions at home, the people of Russia will be feeling the pinch. They will soon realise how little he cares for them

mono-stereo

alistair

alistair Even China has turned their back on him. Russian companies and banks have lost all access to international companies.

In what sense has China turned their back on him?

In terms of International payments, some banks still have access to SWIFT, and they also have other payment mechanisms available. They are constrained yes, but aren’t completely locked out yet.

Dubman

It’s been very quiet for most of the night in Kyiv and even this morning. I was expecting a big attack. My only worry now is that something much bigger is coming.
Putin is reportedly to be one of the richest men in the world. What’s the point in having all that money if he can’t really enjoy it. Especially after what he has done. Just hoping he doesn’t completely loses the plot and tries to push that big red button.

alistair

Old-Dutch meanwhile back in Moscow

bosstrabs

Old-Dutch

He’s fucked.

alistair

mono-stereo They abstained in the UN and made it clear they want Russia to negotiate and that was only on day two. The West who seem united have even more levers to pull. Anyone who works on the financial markets will tell you he’s fucked and that’s before you factor in many Russian people who have grown used to a fairly decent life.

LT42

mono-stereo China haven’t turned their back on him. Plenty of shit talk in this thread, Mono.

hugopal

bosstrabs FT quoting a source estimating that less than 45% of the Russian central bank’s c.$622bn in foreign exchange reserves involves western counterparties or issuers - down from 90% 10 years ago, with Russia having attempted to reduce its exposure to potential sanctions in recent years and weeks.

Still a shedload though.

https://www.ft.com/content/cecda802-2750-4563-9405-ab1e35980893

mono-stereo

alistair They abstained in the UN and made it clear they want Russia to negotiate and that was on only on day two.

China’s decision to abstain dosn’t mean they’ve turned their back on Russia, if anything they’re just hedging thier bets.

Homegrove

This could a good reason why they haven’t just bombed everything to hell. Of course that goes out the window if they think they’ll definitely lose otherwise.

alistair

Homegrove spot on. In his own fucked up mind, he thinks the Ukrainian people will grow to love him

bosstrabs

Feigenbaum is well-respected for his insight, and this sets out the tightrope the PRC is walking…
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/02/24/china-faces-irreconcilable-choices-on-ukraine-pub-86515

Dan

LT42 The Chinese are happy to sit on the fence….for now..

mono-stereo

LT42 Yup, I just don’t buy the idea being bandied about that Russia runs out of steam if Ukraine holds out for 10 days. It just seems daft.

LT42

Dan Same with Turkey despite the rhetoric.

LT42

There’s fighting about 30km outside of Kyiv in Bucha, a key route to the capital. Cruise missiles have hit targets in Kyiv and some have also been shot down.

Russian soldiers using the opportunity to rob a few banks along the way.

LT42

mono-stereo I said all along the Donbass region may have been the goal all along and a completely open canal area to Crimea. He’ll settle for that if they do back off.

LT42

This has been in the works for a few days…

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