Ukraine war (WW3)

Old-Dutch

mono-stereo Financially he’s been building up a war chest over the years, surely he has priced in sanctions to some extent?

Estimates that the war is costing him $20b a day. Not sure how large that war chest can be after 2 years of COVID, but the longer Ukraine can hold on and the more the screw tightens with sanctions at home, the people of Russia will be feeling the pinch. They will soon realise how little he cares for them

alistair

Old-Dutch meanwhile back in Moscow

bosstrabs

Old-Dutch

He’s fucked.

mono-stereo

alistair

alistair Even China has turned their back on him. Russian companies and banks have lost all access to international companies.

In what sense has China turned their back on him?

In terms of International payments, some banks still have access to SWIFT, and they also have other payment mechanisms available. They are constrained yes, but aren’t completely locked out yet.

alistair

mono-stereo They abstained in the UN and made it clear they want Russia to negotiate and that was only on day two. The West who seem united have even more levers to pull. Anyone who works on the financial markets will tell you he’s fucked and that’s before you factor in many Russian people who have grown used to a fairly decent life.

LT42

mono-stereo China haven’t turned their back on him. Plenty of shit talk in this thread, Mono.

hugopal

bosstrabs FT quoting a source estimating that less than 45% of the Russian central bank’s c.$622bn in foreign exchange reserves involves western counterparties or issuers - down from 90% 10 years ago, with Russia having attempted to reduce its exposure to potential sanctions in recent years and weeks.

Still a shedload though.

https://www.ft.com/content/cecda802-2750-4563-9405-ab1e35980893

mono-stereo

alistair They abstained in the UN and made it clear they want Russia to negotiate and that was on only on day two.

China’s decision to abstain dosn’t mean they’ve turned their back on Russia, if anything they’re just hedging thier bets.

Homegrove

This could a good reason why they haven’t just bombed everything to hell. Of course that goes out the window if they think they’ll definitely lose otherwise.

alistair

Homegrove spot on. In his own fucked up mind, he thinks the Ukrainian people will grow to love him

bosstrabs

Feigenbaum is well-respected for his insight, and this sets out the tightrope the PRC is walking…
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/02/24/china-faces-irreconcilable-choices-on-ukraine-pub-86515

Dan

LT42 The Chinese are happy to sit on the fence….for now..

mono-stereo

LT42 Yup, I just don’t buy the idea being bandied about that Russia runs out of steam if Ukraine holds out for 10 days. It just seems daft.

LT42

Dan Same with Turkey despite the rhetoric.

LT42

There’s fighting about 30km outside of Kyiv in Bucha, a key route to the capital. Cruise missiles have hit targets in Kyiv and some have also been shot down.

Russian soldiers using the opportunity to rob a few banks along the way.

LT42

mono-stereo I said all along the Donbass region may have been the goal all along and a completely open canal area to Crimea. He’ll settle for that if they do back off.

LT42

This has been in the works for a few days…

Old-Dutch

hugopal

Old-Dutch if true it seems to only be with Digital TV, but 90%+ Russians use cable.

LT42

alistair Seems Russia still has no control of any major Ukrainian city.

Comical Ali

bosstrabs

LT42 What’s inaccurate about it?

As far as I know (and I may be wrong) the Russians only have control of Donetsk and Sevastopol (the latter already annexed), which are majority Russian speakers/Russian loyalists anyway.

alistair

LT42 Bet you sympathised with Saddam. The dictator’s useful idiot.

LT42

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