Interesting - I wonder if NATO are just waiting for concrete evidence of Putin crossing a so-called āRed Lineā
The way things are shaping up, this war has hit a pivot point. Putin is on the brink of taking this to the balancing point where NATO cannot and will not stay out of the fight. Putinās challenge is winning and ensuring his own political survival. NATO may soon destroy his military venture and bring his political life to an abrupt end.
It pays to remember that although Putin likes to be seen as grand strategist, he is in fact a prize āchancerā, and always has been. He takes risks with a flair, but these are risks where others suffer the consequences if his plans fail. This time, his concern is about his political survival. Itās different and uncomfortable, itās not just a military operation that might fail with losses of thousands of military personnel and billions of Roubles of military hardware, it could end his crusade for his Greater Russia, to be achieved by 2036! Putin has to come out of this alive, in office, unchallenged, and the saviour of the Russians to achieve his objectives. Ukraine is but one of the many nations he wants absorbed within his Greater Russia. But can he stop himself and wait this one out for a better time?
Fissures have always been present in the Kremlin, Putin has been managing these recently with sackings is a number of senior military, arrests of FSB Director and Deputy. The scapegoating for failure sending ripples of fear and dread throughout the military and security elites. Will these fissures continue to run, develop into fractures and potential collapse? Putin canāt afford that. Heās also running out of time, patience with the few limited supporters, especially China. His economy is heading for ruination and loss of markets threaten a major depression ahead for decades. Heās run out of troops, bullying and cajoling Lukanhesko yesterday for his military contribution, even setting up a mock Ukraine air strike on Belorus with Russian jets that actually took off from Belarus and attacked Belorus! Putinās under pressure now all the more because heās ācleaned houseā, removed all the incompetent blocks to success, now heās at the helm he has to show he will win his War in Ukraine.
Putin is becoming more desperate. Heās escalating through his playbook. Threats didnāt work, massed artillery and armour didnāt work. Air assault troops didnāt work. Special forces and abducting civil administrators hasnāt worked. Fuel air explosives didnāt work. These tools of his trade certainly killed people, maimed thousands, destroyed vast areas, caused more than 10 million to be displaced within Ukraine, and now over 2 million refugees have fled west. But he has failed. Putin has failed to meet his objectives within his time frame. Time was of the essence. He lost time and it seems he canāt recover from this. He gave time to the west to coalesce and create a response the world has never seen before.
Criticism of Russia was expected, but it was thought it would wash off Putin easily. But a vote in The UNGA where all but 5 nations voted against Russia was a polite political warning of what was to follow.
Sanctions were expected. Putinās plan for Ukraine, put together by Dimitri Kozak (Kremlin Chief of Staff and ex-FSB colleague) accounted for this and vast amounts of foreign currencies were bought in months leading up to the invasion m. But Putin, Kozak and Lavrov had no idea how the modern financial world works, which is surprising given Putinās criminal activities, fortunes abroad and connections. But this was underestimated massively. It made time an even more critical factor because the safety net of cash was no good anymore and soldiers at war have to be paid and replacement tanks, ammunition and aircraft have to be bought. The rouble dropped nearly 50% in a week, ordinary Russians were being affected. Oligarchs, hit by sanctions have offers bounties for Putinās removal. This unintended outcome shows Putin is becoming ever more isolated, heās dropping pals faster than my dogs drop fleas!
NATO was expected to respond and Putin used negotiations, as he had done successfully in 2014, to stop NATO moving to action. The same players were drawn into Putinās game of splitting political cohesion in NATO, the French President and the German Chancellor. Putin believed their self interests in maintaining fuel supplies from Russia would override legal principles of sovereignty enshrined in international law and the UN. He was nearly right. But then Chancellor Scholz announced Germany had changed its stance, France followed. Ever more weaponry would find its way from EU and NATO member states to Ukraine. NATO deployed the NRF. That was always a possibility, but then there were deployments to the Baltics by UK and USA. Then there have been some more ambiguous deployments of strategic importance that will not have gone unnoticed by Russia, no matter how useless its intelligence may seem to Putin. There are forces that could be part of a coalition of other states. This will put Putin off balance, because he is now faced with forces that were never part of calculus for initiating his War. Heās not so good when heās faced with entities he hasnāt time to assess. All of this put together has placed Putin under immense pressure.
Four or five days ago Putinās War changed to address the slow progress. This manifested itself in Ukraine by far more attacks on civilians, civilian infrastructure, food warehouses, medical facilities, denial of humanitarian support and targeting humanitarian corridors previously agreed at the highest levels in both sides. Putin was going for what, in his mind, was the soft under belly of Ukraine, the civilian population, non combatants under the Geneva Conventions. This is clearly purposeful, systematic and widespread, with sophisticated weaponry that is repeatedly hitting purely civil targets, hospitals, clinics, nurseries, shelter, accommodation blocks, food warehouses, assembly areas for humanitarian evacuation, and agreed humanitarian corridors. Putinās tempting NATO. Why take the risk? Well time is the obvious factor, as outlined above. But heās seeing how far he can go, finding NATOās Red Lines, if it has any. Itās like the old Soviet tactic of reconnaissance by fire - sending in troops knowing theyāll die in order to find where your enemy is. If NATO doesnāt respond Putin knows he can broaden the scale of attacks on Ukrainian civilians and be more ruthless in denying humanitarian evacuations and assistance, as is the case with Mariupol now.
However, killing, maiming and denying humanitarian aid to large numbers of civilians, besieging them to starve and freeze to death isnāt working fast enough for Putin. Therefore the need for escalation to the use of chemical or biological weapons. The political ground was prepared by Putinās lapdog, Lavrov. Lactic wobbled his bloodhound sized jowls at a few international meetings and press briefings, sowing notions that the Ukrainians had a biological and chemical weapon facility and had a weaponised capability. This fake news was drip fed through meetings and media until the meeting called at the UNSC yesterday. Frankly youād have to brain dead not to work out what was going on. Itās just a means of justifying Russian use of chemical weapons against large numbers of Ukrainian civilians. So why bother fabricating the act? Firstly, to be able to deny the act. Secondly, to prevent the ādouble truthā to the majority of Russian citizens who are politically complacent and will believe whatever their government puts in their TV channels. Finally, Putin and Lavrov are so confident they will take all Ukraine, no international fact finding mission will ever find any evidence. They will control the evidence, the narrative and the history of what is being planned.
NATO is moving its troops up to the Ukraine borders, judging from todayāa videos which were hot on the heels of NATOās minor firepower display. I wrote minor, because Iāve seen better fire displays in real action undertaken by sections of 10 volunteer Ukrainians. It was also underwhelming compared to the Russian equivalent filmed in Belorus prior to invading Ukraine. However, the reality is what matters. Although NATO ground troops are an essential component, it is the AirPower and space power (satellites etc) that NATO that will use relentlessly to knock Russians back to their homeland and sink ships, or turn them to ashes and piles of bent metal.
So far Putinās shown NATO to be ineffective. Ukraine regrets giving its nuclear arsenal up, the third largest in to the World, all done on the promise that NATO and Europe would guarantee its security. Putinās efforts to undermine Ukraineās confidence in its neighbours made some headway, but all that has changed as a result of his invasion of Ukraine. NATO has not and will not permanently block any consideration of Ukraine joining NATO. Indeed, if NATO goes into Ukraine, it will remain there for as long as NATO is needed in Europe.
The big question being does NATO have any red lines at all, and if so what are they? If Putin likes nothing else, itās knowing his adversary. NATO is probably best leaving these questions unanswered to Putin. The ambiguity will unhinge his mind. But others within his regime may know already. Why? Because there are very many Russians who donāt want nuclear suicide over Ukraine and have the ability, power and determination to isolate Putin and his entourage, and get Russia out of this horrific debacle.
Putin is under such pressure to deliver what he planned for it seems he canāt turn back. Itās all about his personal survival politically. But NATO knows that leaving Putin in place is folly because heāll be doing the same in a few years time but with his intelligence and military faults ironed out. The choice for NATO is not if it should intervene, itās when it should intervene. Itās daring Putin to go over the brink, to use chemical weapons. The next days will irrevocably seal the fate of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians and all because of Putinās insatiable gluttony for power and self esteem.
