Hursty This is the 10 year bond yield vs the 2 year bond yield which at the moment is in negative territory, meaning the rate for the 2 year is higher than that of the 10 year, which in normal times shouldn’t be happening.

This has been created by the increase in rates by central banks to attempt to reduce inflation, which one could argue is occurring to some extent. However, this signals the countdown to an inevitable recession, every time since 1960 where the yield curve has gone negative we have had a recession with a year approximately.

The real question is, how bad, for how long and which markets will suffer the most.

Commercial real estate seems to be the most likely to suffer due to the expiration of fixed term loans on low interest rates, and the inevitable renewals at substantially higher rates, coupled with the reduction in requirement of office space in cities across the world due to the change in working practices post covid. Many smaller banks tend to hold these loans apparently and are less likely to be able to remain solvent.

Textbook 😂

    Mad_Cyril what are you on about you plank?

    It’s a bit rich claiming I have no expertise when you have no idea and also this is coming from someone who has never demonstrated any expertise in anything because you never get involved in debates outside of footy and the music threads

    Why not piss off and do some research into bond yield curves, come back and provide something of worth to this conversation

    Being an old cunt doesn’t mean you can only get you information from libraries and newspapers, the internet is a genuine source, its not all fake news you know

      Hursty Top work lad, keep it up and you’ll take over the mantle from BF

      There will never be another BF!

        I like ‘Bursty’ but I think ‘Worsty’ would be even better.

        Or FIAT CUNTO.

        Hursty It’s a bit rich claiming I have no expertise when you have no idea and also this is coming from someone who has never demonstrated any expertise in anything because you never get involved in debates outside of footy and the music threads

        I’m quite skilled at punctuation.

        2 months later

        5% Interest rate…we are just getting started!

          No mortgage for moi ! Money in the bank finally earning interest.

          Cheers

          Jacob Reece Mogg

          Hursty Paid off my mortgage last year. Keeping an eye on the savers rates.

          I have a lovely £250k left and sat on a 1.59% fix until Dec 2025.

          Or fucked….er, I mean, ‘winning’ as I prefer to call it

            I’m in the process of remortgaging as we speak.

            Going up by a bag of sand a month.

            Absolutely fucking delighted.

              Smallman1 or winning as us winners like to call it. Imagine how much coal facing that grand could go on. Bastards

              The kitchen sinking and ledging will have to be dialled right back.

              Thank god the bants is immune from a rate rise.

              We go again!

                That was basically your suaving budget up the swanny.

                Taken man nowadays!

                Me Julie’s hit the absolute jackpot (minus a grand a month)