alistair it’s only taken Fraser Nelson 2 years of SAGE modelling being typically over-estimated to the tune of 10x every single wave for him to finally realise that they’re a complete load of bollocks?

A bit slow, but got there in the end.

      alistair here’s a more full article on that story in case you (and others) missed it:

      https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

      There’s a few interesting parts of the article, including this:

      "Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Graham Medley, the chair of the Sage modelling committee.

      He’s a professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) which last weekend published a study on Omicron making the case for more restrictions. In a note sent to clients, JP Morgan pointed out that in all of its scenarios. -even the ‘optimistic’ once - LSHTM had assumed that the Omicron variant is just as dangerous as Delta. Why? ‘Evidence from South Africa suggests that Omicron infections are milder,’ JP Morgan said. Adjust for this, it found, and the picture changed dramatically:-

      “Bed occupancy by Covid-19 patients at the end of January would be 33% of the peak seen in January 2021. This would be manageable without further restrictions.’"

      So JP Morgan had spotted something pretty big; tweak one assumption (on severity) and – suddenly – no need for lockdown.

      Why was this scenario left out?"

          hugopal yup, churning out worst case scenarios and calling for restrictions based on them. They will never share the data upon which these decisions are taken because it’s fundamentally flawed

            Smallman1 any article or viewpoint which uses SAGE predictions to try and justify itself should be met with significant scepticism and pushback.

              Hursty I’m flying to Maldives in the 25th… have a good one chaps!! Actually latest is that they may lock us down this week… I find it amazing that we are talking about lockdown (and it’s almost certainly going to happen) and there are a number of big footie games today - utterly Fckng stupid

                  Hursty if I can’t get home? Can work off my phone I guess… not sure they would stop you coming back? Not even sure there’s any point stopping travelling full stop, though maybe that’s my little dream world

                      Jules72 was just thinking if there is some crazy quarantine rule on the way back in

                        Jules72 ’m flying to Maldives in the 25th… have a good one chaps!! Actually latest is that they may lock us down this week… I find it amazing that we are talking about lockdown (and it’s almost certainly going to happen) and there are a number of big footie games today - utterly Fckng stupid

                        If they’re going to do it should do it right away, not wait until the 26th for fear of upsetting people.

                        That said, I’d benefit from reduced mixing, we’re due to host this year, guests include students, the closer we get the less enamoured I am with the idea - esp. being immunity suppressed (as some woman called it on Newsnight last week)

                            Mad_Cyril If they’re going to do it should do it right away

                            On what basis should they even do it at all?!

                                "The NHS may avoid being overwhelmed by omicron, with the UK’s surge reflecting the experience in South Africa, early figures suggest.

                                Analysis by The Telegraph of Britain’s outbreak hotspot of the new variant reveals that the spike in cases is not being followed by a comparable rise in hospital admissions.

                                According to data collected by the Wellcome Sanger Institute, South Northamptonshire was one of the first areas to suffer a cluster of cases, with more than 926 cases per 100,000 people - the highest in the country.

                                However, the hospital admission rate at the Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust is not experiencing a similar surge.

                                As of December 12, its rolling admissions rate was steady at about 11 per cent of the January peak, broadly matching those trends of high cases but lower admissions seen in South Africa."

                                https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/18/covid-hotspot-figures-show-nhs-may-avoid-overwhelmed-omicron/

                                  Decent podcast with the CEO of Pfizer. Learned alot about the industry from this and some queries answered.

                                    hugopal
                                    Wasn’t discussing WHETHER they should do it Hugo. I don’t have access to appropriate evidence so it’s not really for me to pontificate.

                                    If the decision is ‘we think a precautionary firebreak’, it makes no sense to hold off a week. You either need one or you don’t.

                                        A big like AND a lol for Zackster’s last video.