The General Covid19 Thread

mono-stereo

jonattonyeah The therapist seemed to actually think he was in the band by the end.

😆

jonattonyeah

It’s honestly worth a watch, Mono. The entire thing is bizarre. Was originally put together as an MTV collection of “commercials” (like 15 minute long bits) to promote their new album at the time. But it all went haywire so they released it as a film. The only person who displays any self-awareness is Kirk, the guitarist. James, Lars, and whoever the fuck the therapist is….they’re on another planet entirely. Pretty sure it’s on Netflix.

hugopal

alistair it’s only taken Fraser Nelson 2 years of SAGE modelling being typically over-estimated to the tune of 10x every single wave for him to finally realise that they’re a complete load of bollocks?

A bit slow, but got there in the end.

alistair

hugopal yup, churning out worst case scenarios and calling for restrictions based on them. They will never share the data upon which these decisions are taken because it’s fundamentally flawed

hugopal

alistair here’s a more full article on that story in case you (and others) missed it:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

There’s a few interesting parts of the article, including this:

"Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Graham Medley, the chair of the Sage modelling committee.

He’s a professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) which last weekend published a study on Omicron making the case for more restrictions. In a note sent to clients, JP Morgan pointed out that in all of its scenarios. -even the ‘optimistic’ once - LSHTM had assumed that the Omicron variant is just as dangerous as Delta. Why? ‘Evidence from South Africa suggests that Omicron infections are milder,’ JP Morgan said. Adjust for this, it found, and the picture changed dramatically:-

“Bed occupancy by Covid-19 patients at the end of January would be 33% of the peak seen in January 2021. This would be manageable without further restrictions.’"

So JP Morgan had spotted something pretty big; tweak one assumption (on severity) and – suddenly – no need for lockdown.

Why was this scenario left out?"

Along_the_Wire

hugopal I’m not saying The Spectator is wrong here, it was certainly right about opening up fully in the summer, but it’s a rampant right-wing rag that was against all the lock downs and restrictions of 2020. Right bunch of cunts.

And quoting the Telegraph? Do me a favour Hugo. At least I’ve done the respectful thing and stopped posting bullshit from the other end of the spectrum with the Guardian

mono-stereo

A Metallica fan has built a life-size Lars Ulrich toilet

Smallman1

Batten down the hatches -

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/18/ministers-reportedly-considering-omicron-circuit-breaker-in-england

Hursty

Smallman1 Yep, hearing reports that we lock down on the 26th, cunts

hugopal

Smallman1 any article or viewpoint which uses SAGE predictions to try and justify itself should be met with significant scepticism and pushback.

Jules72

Hursty I’m flying to Maldives in the 25th… have a good one chaps!! Actually latest is that they may lock us down this week… I find it amazing that we are talking about lockdown (and it’s almost certainly going to happen) and there are a number of big footie games today - utterly Fckng stupid

Hursty

Jules72 Enjoy, I take it you can WFM?

Mad_Cyril

Jules72 ’m flying to Maldives in the 25th… have a good one chaps!! Actually latest is that they may lock us down this week… I find it amazing that we are talking about lockdown (and it’s almost certainly going to happen) and there are a number of big footie games today - utterly Fckng stupid

If they’re going to do it should do it right away, not wait until the 26th for fear of upsetting people.

That said, I’d benefit from reduced mixing, we’re due to host this year, guests include students, the closer we get the less enamoured I am with the idea - esp. being immunity suppressed (as some woman called it on Newsnight last week)

Jules72

Hursty if I can’t get home? Can work off my phone I guess… not sure they would stop you coming back? Not even sure there’s any point stopping travelling full stop, though maybe that’s my little dream world

Hursty

Jules72 was just thinking if there is some crazy quarantine rule on the way back in

alistair

Jules72 I’d make sure you take your laptop mate

hugopal

Mad_Cyril If they’re going to do it should do it right away

On what basis should they even do it at all?!

Mad_Cyril

hugopal
Wasn’t discussing WHETHER they should do it Hugo. I don’t have access to appropriate evidence so it’s not really for me to pontificate.

If the decision is ‘we think a precautionary firebreak’, it makes no sense to hold off a week. You either need one or you don’t.

hugopal

"The NHS may avoid being overwhelmed by omicron, with the UK’s surge reflecting the experience in South Africa, early figures suggest.

Analysis by The Telegraph of Britain’s outbreak hotspot of the new variant reveals that the spike in cases is not being followed by a comparable rise in hospital admissions.

According to data collected by the Wellcome Sanger Institute, South Northamptonshire was one of the first areas to suffer a cluster of cases, with more than 926 cases per 100,000 people - the highest in the country.

However, the hospital admission rate at the Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust is not experiencing a similar surge.

As of December 12, its rolling admissions rate was steady at about 11 per cent of the January peak, broadly matching those trends of high cases but lower admissions seen in South Africa."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/18/covid-hotspot-figures-show-nhs-may-avoid-overwhelmed-omicron/

Jules72

hugopal lol an analysis by the Telegraph… I stopped right there (even if I’m likely to agree with the conclusions)

The flip side is that hospitalisations are spiking big time in London - not sure what to make of that, although I suspect a big percentage will be mild

Jules72

alistair fair point you’re right

LT42

Decent podcast with the CEO of Pfizer. Learned alot about the industry from this and some queries answered.

hugopal

LT42 let me guess, he says “covid is here to stay, it’s terrible and you’ll need to be jabbed 4 times a year just to be sure”.

zackster

hugopal

zackster that’s not a very relevant or sensible analogy at all - those STIs are bacteria, not viruses. Plus unlike with covid they regularly evade a person’s immune system, whether young or old, whereas a young person’s immune system will typically defeat covid.

hugopal

Mad_Cyril If the decision is ‘we think a precautionary firebreak’, it makes no sense to hold off a week. You either need one or you don’t.

Well they don’t.

Giving them the benefit of the doubt, hypothetically, maybe they’re still waiting to see whether the hospitalisations actually materialise to determine whether another lockdown is actually necessary?

Smallman1

A big like AND a lol for Zackster’s last video.

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