The General Covid19 Thread

Dubman

jonattonyeah
Just rotate phone 180°. Job done.

FabiParas

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

🚶‍♂️🚶‍♀️🚶‍♂️🚶🏿🚶‍♂️🚶‍♀️🚶‍♂️
Based on your profile, there are between 27,132,105 and 38,844,493 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.

📅 Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your two doses of vaccine and be fully protected by between 19/01/2022 and 02/07/2022.

Looks like its another 18months without for me before I’m going anywhere!

alistair

FabiParas why would we wait for literally everybody to be vaccinated before easing restrictions?

Dubman

FabiParas
Going on that website. I won’t be getting mine until December/January. We need a full lockdown to try slow down this virus.

FabiParas

To achieve any sort of herd immunity level we’ll still have to adhere to some sort of restrictions be it masks, physical distancing etc. However, if we had an effective test and trace system, we’d be able to get on with life a lot quicker, but you know civil liberties etc init.

Jules72

FabiParas test and trace is pointless when you have this many cases… as for masks, given the gammon faces referred to above, can’t see those being adhered to once we get to April/May

FabiParas

Hence, why we’re going to go into a full lockdown any moment now. If, and its a big If at this moment, we get the numbers down again to a manageable level the government will have to start coming down hard(er) on people who don’t adhere. BUT, they need to get TTIS right. If they get that down, then we can start to get restrictions lifted and we can start to see clubs, pubs and businesses open again. Like they have done in South Korea for example.

Then, you can effectively manage local lockdowns in the event of outbreaks.

Jules72

FabiParas aye but they’re fucking useless 🙂 …(likes of Korea are tightening measures at mom btw). I’m with you though that they should be clamping down hard on flouters - I fail to believe that this spike in cases is all down the mutant variant… little doubt imo it’s also down to behaviours.

hugopal

FabiParas that’s exactly what people were saying in March last year - but then all lockdowns since have pretty much achieved the square root of fuck all.

This has been true for basically all countries implementing lockdowns in the western world over the last year.

Wales’ 17 day “circuit breaker” lockdown was even followed soon after by it having the second highest covid case rate in the world.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/wales-second-worst-covid-coronavirus-19506904

Explain that - numbnuts.

FabiParas

Of course, it’s also down to behaviours. But, perversely this is what the government probably want so they can play the blame game. We haven’t had proper lockdown in the UK. We haven’t got the resources to manage it. They know that that’s why you have useful idiots like Alison Pearson and Julia Hate-Brewer getting away with spouting their nonsense in the media.

Mad_Cyril

Dubman
But……
being a morbidly fat cunt gets you up the list rapidly.

Time for a McDonald’s diet!!

All about boxing clever Dubbers

hugopal

jonattonyeah 2% fatality rate or thereabouts

Errrmmmm?!

It’s much closer to 0.2% case fatality rate.

That does not count as “or thereabouts”.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4509/rr

jonattonyeah

hugopal

We’re at 2%. That is a fact. What you posted amounts to a comments section of a newspaper website. It literally starts with “Dear Editor”. Fuck outta here with that nonsense. Cherrypicked bullshit.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Dubman

Mad_Cyril
Good logic. I’ll bin the bike & hammer the cheese. Plus I’m not working. What a winner.

FabiParas

hugopal Depends on what you want to achieve with Lockdowns? Alone, they are useless in eradicating the virus unless you literally lock people indoors and send in food parcels, medication etc.

It worked the first time in slowing down the pressures of the outbreak and bought the government time which they spaffed up the wall. However, everything they’ve done has been late, ill-conceived and ineffective. Their only hope now is the vaccine roll out which they seem to be making a right hash of as well.

hugopal

Dubman which exact points raised by this upside-down headed fella do you disagree with, and why?

mono-stereo

hugopal What’s the alternative to locking down?

hugopal

jonattonyeah that’s a misleading stat/metric - it assumes the death rate based on the assumption that every single covid case has been recorded, whereas we all know that a significant percentage of covid cases never get counted, due to the person being asymptomatic or numerous other reasons.

The source I mentioned lists the studies which it takes the data from.

Meanwhile, from the WHO, “estimates of IFR converging at approximately 0.5 - 1%” - and that’s with the WHO being typically cautious, and also is taken from August, where we’ve since seen cases skyrocket again but without a directly corresponding uplift in deaths. This further reduction in covid mortality since August has been speculated as being due to better treatment, or less fatal strains.

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19

In July the CDC in the US put the mortality rate at 0.65%.

Here’s more, from back in July again:

“On Thursday, after the World Health Organization held a two-day online meeting of 1,300 scientists from around the world, the agency’s chief scientist, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, said the consensus for now was that the I.F.R. is about 0.6 percent”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-death-rate.html

alistair

FabiParas I am no government apologist. They have fucked up many things, but they have reportedly given 1m shots in the arm which is more than any other European country thus far.

hugopal

FabiParas It worked the first time in slowing down the pressures of the outbreak and bought the government time

This is the thing - at best lockdowns here have not done anything to eradicate the virus, they literally just kick the can down the road until people leave their houses to do anything again, at which point it will return quickly.

What should the Welsh government have done with the 17 days of “circuit-breaker” lockdown which it implemented, that would have made the situation in Wales any better in December?

Also, cases in the UK already peaked before the first lockdown in Spring, so it didn’t do much then either:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/04/coronavirus-infections-england-wales-hit-peak-days-lockdown/

So similarly, what should the UK government have done in the Spring which would have prevented the virus coming back this winter?

There really are people out there who seem to desire that the world be locked down forever.

jonattonyeah

hugopal

You’ve chosen the hill you’re going to die on and will pick and choose what data sets you’re going to believe and which ones you’re going to disregard or consider “misleading”. How neat. You’ve posted a “Dear Editor” and now a “Commentary” as your evidence. I’m going to go with Johns Hopkins and what I see on my desk every day, thanks. I stand nothing to gain by saying, as a fact, that SF is at 2% fatality. If anything, as a partner at a bar, I’m losing money every fucking day because of this, as we’ve been shuttered since mid-December. Governments have messed this up, no doubt, but to minimize the danger of this virus is unconscionable and, as someone with pulmonary fibrosis because of it, is frankly offensive. Pull it together, Hugo. It’s okay to be conservative and untrusting of institutions without being a complete nutter.

LT42

hugopal whereas we all know that a significant percentage of covid cases never get counted, due to the person being asymptomatic

That’s a strange assertion given that Tony Holohan (CMO of Ireland) publicly stated he wishes they didn’t include asymptomatic cases in the numbers. He thinks a case should be counted only when it’s a positive coupled with a hospital admission. All numbers counted were for positive results, period.

bosstrabs

hugopal This is the thing - at best lockdowns here have not done anything to eradicate the virus, they literally just kick the can down the road until people leave their houses to do anything again, at which point it will return quickly.

I think the hope is that vaccination program will be in full swing by the end of the next lockdown though.

What’s the alternative? Years of underfunding means ICU capacity cannot be rapidly scaled up and staffed. I understand why the government is petrified, the COVID dead unattended in hospital corridors isn’t something that any government would want the ‘optics’ of.

FabiParas

And, those people are idiots. In much the same way as people want things opened up before it should.

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