This is well worth a read on DB:
https://www.ft.com/content/1bef3178-45f2-4168-ac6a-32604ffe033f
Looming Financial Collapse
The bank that lent Trump $300m
Heâs good for it
9 days later
Reassuring words from Dr Doom
So everything is absolutely fine in the banking sector?
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Spy didnât break 410, back down to 390 or 383 no doubt. Short on Netflix itâs did well of late but overvalued in this market imo and earnings coming up on 18th.
9 days later
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When the red line inverts and starts heading back to blue, the shit will start hitting the fan
Unless of course the yield curve is deadâŚ.this time itâs different right?
Thereâs a recession coming?
Along_the_Wire according to our government, no
âUK economy will avoid recession despite no growth in February, says Huntâ 14th April 23
Along_the_Wire
Unless we make up our own munny and lolz at FIAT Grant.
Snidey Cyril does have a nice alliterative ring to it
All thatâs left is for Snidey Cyril to form an unholy alliance with Cerebral Smalls. Balance restored to the universe.
One does what one can chaps
benson This is the 10 year bond yield vs the 2 year bond yield which at the moment is in negative territory, meaning the rate for the 2 year is higher than that of the 10 year, which in normal times shouldnât be happening.
This has been created by the increase in rates by central banks to attempt to reduce inflation, which one could argue is occurring to some extent. However, this signals the countdown to an inevitable recession, every time since 1960 where the yield curve has gone negative we have had a recession with a year approximately.
The real question is, how bad, for how long and which markets will suffer the most.
Commercial real estate seems to be the most likely to suffer due to the expiration of fixed term loans on low interest rates, and the inevitable renewals at substantially higher rates, coupled with the reduction in requirement of office space in cities across the world due to the change in working practices post covid. Many smaller banks tend to hold these loans apparently and are less likely to be able to remain solvent.