The General Covid19 Thread

Jules72

hugopal Hugo…. Stop presenting your facts and data in a way that patronises people reading this.. if you get 64 deaths per day during the winter then your case is proven, but this is summer… moreover we don’t know for sure that the delta variant is done - things look positive but there is no certainty about this

Along_the_Wire

Jules72 I’m sure Hugo can talk us through long covid and associated risks.

hugopal

Jules72 moreover we don’t know for sure that the delta variant is done - things look positive but there is no certainty about this

It is done, but keep quivering in your boots if you wish.

And herd immunity will be reached in time for winter.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal Currently the rolling weekly average for covid deaths in the UK is only 64 - despite the huge case numbers there have been recently.

This is because 94% of over 50s and those at risk have been fully vaccinated.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire basically all viruses and respiratory illnesses can and do linger in some people. I had two mates in secondary school who had to stay at home for months from glandular fever, but the world didn’t stop spinning for them.

The percentages in which it occurs is hardly anything.

There’s another reason why the issue is also overblown and a red herring - the few people who have long covid struggle for a few months, sure, but that’s hardly worth shutting a whole country down for. Plus does it really matter if you have long covid when there’s fuck-all to do anyway while you have it because everywhere is unnecessarily locked down?

Stay at home from long covid, or be forced to stay at home cos the government and other selfish people are twats or wimps - same result, you’re still unnecessarily screwing the country and the lives of millions.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire because most of the people who would have died from flu just died from covid instead.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal 1,200 people died of flu in 2019. The first case of covid in the UK was 2020

zackster

hugopal And herd immunity will be reached in time for winter.

Uuuh the rate at which variants present themselves prevents herd immunity from being a reality, and we know that the unvaccinated promote the spread of the virus which in turn promotes mutation.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire

I literally gave you the link to the Public Health England annual influenza reports.

Where are you getting those seemingly incorrect looking numbers from?

Check the PHE annual influenza report winter 2019/20 I gave you and turn to the table on page 54:

Table 4. Number of deaths associated with influenza observed through the FluMOMO
algorithm with confidence intervals, England, 2015 to 2016 season to 2019 to 2020

Along_the_Wire

hugopal What would you have recommended instead of the last lockdown and mass vaccination programme?

hugopal

Along_the_Wire when have I argued against the mass vaccination program? The UK has done well in speedily pioneering its rollout. I just don’t think people should be forced to have it, even if I’m getting it myself.

The easing and ending of restrictions could and should have come earlier and been more frequent, but again it’s good that the UK have finally made the leap and opened up ahead of many other countries in the western world. They just need to now hold their nerve, and not screw it all up by using it as a pathetic excuse to usher in a new form of erosion of civil liberties in covid passports, that have the potential to be at least as damaging and overly long as the supposed initial three-week lockdown ended up being.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal Where are you getting those seemingly incorrect looking numbers from?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/influenzadeathsin20182019and2020

hugopal

Along_the_Wire odd, that seems out of whack with basically every other source I can find including the PHE official report on the subject; not sure how or why.

Eg, NHS Greenwich:
“Around 10,000 deaths are caused by flu each year in England and Wales”

https://www.greenwichccg.nhs.uk/News-Publications/news/Pages/Around-10,000-deaths-are-caused-by-flu-each-year-in-England-and-Wales.aspx

And this early report from the Health Protection Agency:

“The authors say that flu causes between 10500 and 25 000 deaths a year in England and Wales”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1676118/

Yahoo UK has also quoted the same PHE figures as me:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/covid-flu-comparison-england-164703788.html

Along_the_Wire

hugopal I can’t be arsed digging everything up, but to imply that your issues are just down to vaccination rates for the under 50s, really doesn’t pass my sniff test.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal what can I tell you? I’d trust the ONS over the Greenwich NHS and the Sun though.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire that’s the only one source for anything close to that much lower ballpark.

Public Health England’s report is literally the government’s official report on the subject - they publish it every year - and is where the news outlets appear to take their queues from (and also why would NHS Greenwich use the wrong figures?!! ). It’s not just a one-off answer lacking in context.

Weren’t you just complaining about negative reporting on covid figures as well? Seems odd that you’re suddenly now so determined to only believe a minority of reported figures that paint covid in a more unfavourable light by contrast.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal No mate, I’m just sick to fucking death of people comparing Covid to flu to justify their positions.

Along_the_Wire

And the ONS is a minority now? Suits you sir.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire it’s a one-off snapshot answer where they don’t post where they actually found the numbers. It’s the only place that seems to have published a number anywhere close to that ballpark. All other reports and articles on the subject have thighs completely different.

Again, no idea what the bloke at the ONS answering desk that day has managed to do there, but the government’s own annual report 100% dedicated to the issue of monitoring flu numbers puts annual flu deaths at typically 10x that.

hugopal

zackster Uuuh the rate at which variants present themselves prevents herd immunity from being a reality

Vaccines and antibodies are generally effective to a significant degree across differing mutations of the same virus.

How long the antibodies and the vaccines last isn’t entirely clear, but given when mostly people last got their jabs and/or got infected those should carry through until next winter.

Maybe next summer people will require top-ups again, who knows. It will depend on the direction covid takes.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal Like I said, I suits you. The ONS is an incredibly solid organisation. Pick it up with them. Either way, comparing covid to flu gets in my fucking tits.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal You’ve also given me three sources, one of which is The Sun and another the Greenwich NHS. I’ve had an awful tedious day on here thanks to you and fucking Funky - I’m going to read a book. A book of fiction.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire Either way, comparing covid to flu gets in my fucking tits.

Which is again just weird because you complain about the overly negative and pessimistic reporting of Covid stats, yet when I show you valid stats which also demonstrate how the statistical threat of covid is still now being misrepresented you wish to bury your head in the sand again and assume it to appear deadlier than it actually is.

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