The General Covid19 Thread

Along_the_Wire

hugopal What would you have recommended instead of the last lockdown and mass vaccination programme?

hugopal

Along_the_Wire when have I argued against the mass vaccination program? The UK has done well in speedily pioneering its rollout. I just don’t think people should be forced to have it, even if I’m getting it myself.

The easing and ending of restrictions could and should have come earlier and been more frequent, but again it’s good that the UK have finally made the leap and opened up ahead of many other countries in the western world. They just need to now hold their nerve, and not screw it all up by using it as a pathetic excuse to usher in a new form of erosion of civil liberties in covid passports, that have the potential to be at least as damaging and overly long as the supposed initial three-week lockdown ended up being.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire

I literally gave you the link to the Public Health England annual influenza reports.

Where are you getting those seemingly incorrect looking numbers from?

Check the PHE annual influenza report winter 2019/20 I gave you and turn to the table on page 54:

Table 4. Number of deaths associated with influenza observed through the FluMOMO
algorithm with confidence intervals, England, 2015 to 2016 season to 2019 to 2020

Along_the_Wire

hugopal Where are you getting those seemingly incorrect looking numbers from?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/influenzadeathsin20182019and2020

hugopal

Along_the_Wire odd, that seems out of whack with basically every other source I can find including the PHE official report on the subject; not sure how or why.

Eg, NHS Greenwich:
“Around 10,000 deaths are caused by flu each year in England and Wales”

https://www.greenwichccg.nhs.uk/News-Publications/news/Pages/Around-10,000-deaths-are-caused-by-flu-each-year-in-England-and-Wales.aspx

And this early report from the Health Protection Agency:

“The authors say that flu causes between 10500 and 25 000 deaths a year in England and Wales”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1676118/

Yahoo UK has also quoted the same PHE figures as me:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/covid-flu-comparison-england-164703788.html

Along_the_Wire

hugopal I can’t be arsed digging everything up, but to imply that your issues are just down to vaccination rates for the under 50s, really doesn’t pass my sniff test.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal what can I tell you? I’d trust the ONS over the Greenwich NHS and the Sun though.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire that’s the only one source for anything close to that much lower ballpark.

Public Health England’s report is literally the government’s official report on the subject - they publish it every year - and is where the news outlets appear to take their queues from (and also why would NHS Greenwich use the wrong figures?!! ). It’s not just a one-off answer lacking in context.

Weren’t you just complaining about negative reporting on covid figures as well? Seems odd that you’re suddenly now so determined to only believe a minority of reported figures that paint covid in a more unfavourable light by contrast.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal No mate, I’m just sick to fucking death of people comparing Covid to flu to justify their positions.

Along_the_Wire

And the ONS is a minority now? Suits you sir.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire it’s a one-off snapshot answer where they don’t post where they actually found the numbers. It’s the only place that seems to have published a number anywhere close to that ballpark. All other reports and articles on the subject have thighs completely different.

Again, no idea what the bloke at the ONS answering desk that day has managed to do there, but the government’s own annual report 100% dedicated to the issue of monitoring flu numbers puts annual flu deaths at typically 10x that.

zackster

hugopal And herd immunity will be reached in time for winter.

Uuuh the rate at which variants present themselves prevents herd immunity from being a reality, and we know that the unvaccinated promote the spread of the virus which in turn promotes mutation.

hugopal

zackster Uuuh the rate at which variants present themselves prevents herd immunity from being a reality

Vaccines and antibodies are generally effective to a significant degree across differing mutations of the same virus.

How long the antibodies and the vaccines last isn’t entirely clear, but given when mostly people last got their jabs and/or got infected those should carry through until next winter.

Maybe next summer people will require top-ups again, who knows. It will depend on the direction covid takes.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal Like I said, I suits you. The ONS is an incredibly solid organisation. Pick it up with them. Either way, comparing covid to flu gets in my fucking tits.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal You’ve also given me three sources, one of which is The Sun and another the Greenwich NHS. I’ve had an awful tedious day on here thanks to you and fucking Funky - I’m going to read a book. A book of fiction.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire Either way, comparing covid to flu gets in my fucking tits.

Which is again just weird because you complain about the overly negative and pessimistic reporting of Covid stats, yet when I show you valid stats which also demonstrate how the statistical threat of covid is still now being misrepresented you wish to bury your head in the sand again and assume it to appear deadlier than it actually is.

zackster

hugopal Vaccines and antibodies are generally effective to a significant degree across differing mutations of the same virus.

This is not accurate. While vaccines are effective against all current variants, naturally occurring antibodies are not. USA super congressman and unvaccinated king Clay Higgins has just contracted his second bout of COVID in about 6 months.

hugopal How long the antibodies and the vaccines last isn’t entirely clear, but given when mostly people last got their jabs and/or got infected those should carry through until next winter.

This is also not accurate as both Pfizer and ModeRNA are expected to have booster shots ready by the fall. A shot at least once a year is what is on offer, and the longer people refuse to get a jab the longer and more frequently we will need shots.

hugopal

Along_the_Wire You’ve also given me three sources

I gave you four, another of which was the Health Protection Agency.

alistair

A humorous interlude

Along_the_Wire

hugopal how many people typical die of flu (with your stats) versus actual covid in a 12 month period? 10 times? How many people would’ve died of both without the lock downs. I don’t get the fucking point of comparing them.

Jules72

hugopal you keep doing this - assuming that you have to be at one extreme end of the argument … you also keep inferring that the current rate of deaths is the worst we will see over the next few months, which is plain speculation at this stage. Stop making definitive statements based on speculation about where the numbers are heading

hugopal

Along_the_Wire for sure last year with the initial wave and no vaccinations covid killed more than those who typically die in a flu season, but with the way the mortality rate is running now my guess is that the 12 month period starting from once the vaccinations got underway, say March, to March next year, will have overall covid deaths in the same range as a typical 12 month period of flu deaths.

Along_the_Wire

hugopal LOL.

ONS is bollocks now. Fair enough, you win.

« Previous Page Next Page »