Read this earlier which I thought was about right -
Right now most polling shows Biden to be ahead by double digits. Anyone who believes this is an idiot. First, polling doesn’t usually mean a thing till late in the campaign. Michael Dukakis was leading George Bush by 17 points in mid-summer in 1988. Bush won 40 states and swamped Dukakis.
Next, people don’t tell pollsters the truth. As a matter of fact, people don’t tell anyone the truth. I suggest you read “Everybody Lies” by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. There are a lot of people who will not admit they will be Trump voters.
The NY Times had a long piece this week about how politics is reflected in Facebook activity. In my opinion, the key line in the piece was this…“I know enough about the modern media landscape to know that — what (people) actually read, watch, and click on when nobody’s looking — is often a better indicator of how they’ll act than interviewing them…” Amen.
There are numerous critical issues facing the country - COVID, the devastated economy, police conduct and race relations among them. The populace is highly polarized and many people will be voting against something rather than for something.
I expect the Republican strategy will be clear and simple. It will be a new version of the “Willie Horton” strategy – only we can keep you safe. They will do their best to stay away from COVID, the economy, and the relentless string of scandals that have surrounded the current administration. It will be law and order 24/7. Don’t think for a moment that it’s not a powerful strategy.
Can the Democrats generate an equally powerful strategy? Mr. Biden is not a terribly strong candidate. While there is an enormous trail of shit behind Mr. Trump, there is also a lot of footage of civil disorder that the Republicans will pin on the Democrats. The Democrats need to convince people (with more than platitudes) that they can support “progressive” issues without appearing to excuse violence.
Former SF Mayor Willie Brown, a Democrat, said, “If they stand up and condemn the ‘demonstrators,’ the left wing will label them as Trump flunkies and they’ll be in all sorts of trouble. If they keep quiet or offer passive responses, voters will assume they’re OK with burning and looting.”
The Democrats also need to show that they can get beyond their unfortunate habit of dwelling on how terrible everything is. Whining is not a strategy.
Logic tells me that after the four years we’ve been through it would be impossible for Mr. Trump to be re-elected. But my marketing instinct is that unless the Democrats can come up with a strategy that’s more sophisticated than “Trump sucks,” it’s gonna be close.
