Looking at this, the Ukrainians would be no slouch - a large army of reservists and likely to be highly motivated…. Makes me think Putin will see a full invasion as too risky
Ukraine war (WW3)
COOL!
BlainSA Isn’t Taiwan already theirs according to them? Do they need to grab it?
Well, it’s a civil war that still isn’t actually over. The Communist Party rules the People’s Republic of China (the ‘mainland’) and lays claim to all of China (the mainland and Taiwan); The Nationalists rule the island and also lay claim to all of China - I think Nanjing (on the mainland) is still their ‘official’ capital, although in practical terms it had to become Taipei because they don’t possess the mainland.
15 days later
Slightly optimistic Macron of all people may have helped the situation de-escalate.
Homegrove Size of that table! Wonder if they talked via Whatsapp? “Pass the salt!!! I Said……..”
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ScottBailey Bruce Wayne and Vicky Vale on a date
This is all just a media blown up circus tbf. Putin has no real interest in invading Ukraine, especially not with 100k troops (half of which are logistics personnel) which would not only be impossible but an embarrassing attempt. While everyone and their Auntie are sweating over an invasion, Putin will just calmly take the Donbas region, which is most likely the real motivation here.
ScottBailey reminds me of Empire Strikes back when Vader is in Cloud city.
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Don’t think it is that he has no interest in doing it. He would be equally happy (if not more so) to succeed at the negotiating table. Were Russia to invade, their military (even based on the current build up) is far superior to that of Ukraine and I don’t think there is any doubt as to the eventual victor in that scenario. The real motivation is likely to be Putin’s overarching ambition to see the restoration of the former Soviet Union as a major actor on the geopolitical map. Putin has made much of the threat, as he sees it, of Ukraine and other former Soviet countries joining NATO (ironically the actions of Russia are the very thing that will drive other countries to join NATO) but that is not the real end game, as far as I can see. Think Donbas could be taken irrespective of Ukraine as the fighting has continued much of the time.
Notwithstanding the progress of the current talks, it will be interesting to see what happens after the Beijing Olympics on 20th Feb (as he won’t want to offend Xi Jingping by launching an invasion while that is ongoing). March will also be the last window of opportunity because they will presumably want to launch an invasion on cold, hard ground rather than April onwards when it will be more difficult.
Are you saying that a lesser number of troops on the border are an indication that he is not really intending to follow through with it? Think the current build up is circa 130,000 troops stationed just behind the border. Is that your understanding? I don’t know the minimum would have to be to from a military perspective but I think (as far as I have followed) that all of the indicators are suggesting they are poised for an imminent attack based on reliable sources (not based on what the media are touting in the press). Also have to factor that it is likely to be a land, sea and air invasion, not just boots on the ground.
As ever, it is difficult to understand the extent of the media exaggerating it but after the last invasion in 2014 and Crimea, it would be difficult to explain purely as a product of the media talking up the idea. That’s why I mentioned about Putin’s (possible) rationale for it.
