Amps that’s actually a really interesting and intelligent question in my opinion. Something I am many other people have been thinking about quite a lot.
you could break it down like this. Say there are three possibilities. Reintegration, peaceful separation, further disintegration.
I reckon peaceful separation has got to be at least a 7 out of ten shot over a ten year horizon. 2/10 for further disintegration and 10% chance of reintegration.
I’m not trying to deny there will be significant downsides, in the short term especially, but over the medium to long term it’s really hard to say what the optimal configuration would look like. I see a lot of advantages for all stakeholders (consumers, producers, entrepreneurs) in having the UK outside of the EU.
This is not some sort of ideological position. I’m not massively anti EU and was a reluctant remainer. I’m a Green tory if such a thing exists. small t, big p as I tell the ladies.
I just think it is often for the greater good to not have huge economic and legislative power concentrated in the hands of a small number of people. In fact, there’s not much I feel more sure about than that.