Ukraine war (WW3)
Are you saying that a lesser number of troops on the border are an indication that he is not really intending to follow through with it? Think the current build up is circa 130,000 troops stationed just behind the border. Is that your understanding? I don’t know the minimum would have to be to from a military perspective but I think (as far as I have followed) that all of the indicators are suggesting they are poised for an imminent attack based on reliable sources (not based on what the media are touting in the press). Also have to factor that it is likely to be a land, sea and air invasion, not just boots on the ground.
As ever, it is difficult to understand the extent of the media exaggerating it but after the last invasion in 2014 and Crimea, it would be difficult to explain purely as a product of the media talking up the idea. That’s why I mentioned about Putin’s (possible) rationale for it.
whatever Are you saying that a lesser number of troops on the border are an indication that he is not really intending to follow through with it? Think the current build up is circa 130,000 troops stationed just behind the border. Is that your understanding? I don’t know the minimum would have to be to from a military perspective but I think (as far as I have followed) that all of the indicators are suggesting they are poised for an imminent attack based on reliable sources
50% of the personnel on the border are not active troops, they are non-combatants which makes sense as most of the hardware seen near the border consists of communications, logisitcs vehicles and medical.
I think you’ve completely written off Ukrainian forces also, Putin isn’t trying to invade Cambodia. 50k troops would be needed just to protect supply chains, never mind march on Kyiv and oust an Internationally backed sovereign country. There’s zero evidence to suggest an air and sea invasion either, that’s just pure speculation at this point. If there’s one thing we know Putin is no fool, from what I’ve seen this is all just about pushing NATO back from Russia’s borders using some traditional Russian sabre-rattling whilst at the same time pulling an ace out of his sleeve and completing the land grab to Crimea - which is far more logical and plausible than an all out invasion of Ukraine.
I’d be vary wary of any “sources” claiming an all out invasion and their motives for thinking so.
There’s also a fairly plausible theory that all Puting is doing is pressurising the Ukrainian Govt to stop the blockade of the North Crimean Canal which Putin needs for agricultural areas where Russia is currently occupied.
It seems most plausible they troops are there so the west have to come to the “table” and negotiate, which they are doing.
Putin is playing chess to gain some concessions which he will no doubt get.
If the troops weren’t on the border the west wouldn’t be as eager to negotiate
Hursty Is Putin not allowed put his own troops inside his own country close to a border which the Yanks technically de-facto control? I’ve no qualms about the Russians doing that. What’s good for the goose…
You’re right though, Putin will get what he wants because he’s about 25 steps ahead of them all.
Hadn’t heard the angle about the composition of the existing troops. Not sure what to make of it from a military perspective i.e. whether that would be considered normal or an indicator of something else.
Not written off Ukrainian forces at all. I understand that proportionally they have a large army (200k is the number that comes to mind without looking it up).
The point about a land, sea and air invasion was not specifically whether they would do that (you are right it would be speculation as to whether that will happen) rather that Russia have much greater capabilities at their disposal rather than just the number of troops on the border. However you want to slice it though, I think Russia will have an overwhelming advantage. It is not as simple as whether they launch an all-out invasion (as you allude) because equally, Russia will not wish to condemned as a pariah in the international community as a result of using all of their military mite.
Putin will certainly want to portray a win whatever the outcome whether militarily or at the negotiation table. I suspect that If a ground invasion doesn’t happen, we are likely to see a continuation of the usual GRU tactics such as the use of mercenaries like the Wagner Group, disinformation and targeted assassinations.
Agreed completely, it is very much about sabre-rattling and Putin’s agenda to push back on what he sees as NATO encroachment that will potentially draw other surrounding countries to join but ultimately Putin saw the fall of the Soviet Union as catastrophic and his world view is that the overall objective should be to see to the restoration of Russia as leading superpower.
I’d be vary wary of any “sources” claiming an all out invasion and their motives for thinking so.
Wasn’t pointing to sources as an indicator of whether it would be – an all-out invasion – the point was that the number of troops and other indicators suggest that they are ready to invade. The actual approach that they would adopt remains to be seen.
whatever the point was that the number of troops and other indicators suggest that they are ready to invade.
I’m no military expert either but from what I’ve read, those who are, reckon its laughable that Putin is considering anything like that given the numbers.
We’re on the same page though, it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. Today’s reports suggest it has just been what we’ve both mentioned - conventional sabre-rattling.
One thing that doesn’t get a mention is Russia’s Doctrine of Deception which is in play at all times. Crimea will be the spot to watch for once this all blows over.
All this talk of fighting and Russia is really making me want to watch Rocky IV.
If only the US still had great men like Oliver North at their disposal.
Bitcoin is going to go nucular, Dave.
Dave’s quite clearly not one of the crew on the space shuttle Bants 13, headed straight to the moon. Wally, funky and millsy are the pilots. Hursty keeps the windows clean. Once we get past the whales, the apes, the dips, the squeeze and the bear, it’s party time…
@Hursty ’s sauce revealed!!
Fair play mate, thats serious networking!
alistair it stops war breaking out I suppose? Do you think he wants to rebuild the USSR or rather just receive greater respect on the world stage? Most likely he will secure the Russian speaking regions as already mentioned in here like Crimea and the Donbas, fully secure the sea of Azoz for their use.
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I’d say it’s fairly obvious what Putin wants and it’s to not have NATO right up against his borders. He says it and acts on it. His stance and responses have been consistent in Georgia and now Ukraine. He’s not the great inscrutable enigma and master strategist that some make him out to be.
The same reason the PRC props up the DPRK, as a buffer (I know South Korea isn’t in NATO, but you get my point).
hello everyone , im from Ukraine . anybody else ?
Former president of Estonia.
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Putin needs a fucking slap, the fucking slag
I’ll shoe him in the hole
Putin the boot in his ringer
“Russian Forces from the Northern & Southern Divisions are now returning to their bases as exercises on the Ukrainian borders have ended.”