Hadn’t heard the angle about the composition of the existing troops. Not sure what to make of it from a military perspective i.e. whether that would be considered normal or an indicator of something else.
Not written off Ukrainian forces at all. I understand that proportionally they have a large army (200k is the number that comes to mind without looking it up).
The point about a land, sea and air invasion was not specifically whether they would do that (you are right it would be speculation as to whether that will happen) rather that Russia have much greater capabilities at their disposal rather than just the number of troops on the border. However you want to slice it though, I think Russia will have an overwhelming advantage. It is not as simple as whether they launch an all-out invasion (as you allude) because equally, Russia will not wish to condemned as a pariah in the international community as a result of using all of their military mite.
Putin will certainly want to portray a win whatever the outcome whether militarily or at the negotiation table. I suspect that If a ground invasion doesn’t happen, we are likely to see a continuation of the usual GRU tactics such as the use of mercenaries like the Wagner Group, disinformation and targeted assassinations.
Agreed completely, it is very much about sabre-rattling and Putin’s agenda to push back on what he sees as NATO encroachment that will potentially draw other surrounding countries to join but ultimately Putin saw the fall of the Soviet Union as catastrophic and his world view is that the overall objective should be to see to the restoration of Russia as leading superpower.
